Our estimates of the tax effect . Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. What are Shadow's specs? Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). Shadow Cloud Gaming: What You Need to Know | Tom's Guide Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Walter J. The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). ShadowStats publishes "alternate" measures of inflation and pretends to do so by employing the methods the statistics bureau used to employ, that is, by ignoring the fact that we consume . Shadow TUAS air vehicle The air vehicle system can be transported by two military wheeled vehicles and can be operated round-the-clock from unprepared sites by the 22-soldier crew. Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. MARCH 2023 MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE -- (April 25th, Federal Reserve Board [FRB], with ShadowStats Supplement). For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Where Commercial Aircraft account for about 32% of total orders, the remaining 68% includes everything else, ranging from automobiles to computers. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). 'Displaced workers' not accurately portrayed in economic data: Shadow (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses Primers & Reports. IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. Summary John Williams from Shadowstats joins me to discuss the new economy post-COVID-19 emergence in the US. How Accurate is ShadowStats on The Understatement of US Inflation With January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery -- The Feds Balance Sheet Reduction formally began in June 2022 and should have begun to relieve some Money Supply pressures on Inflation at that time, in theory. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery Informal Economy Sizes. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. Yet hard Money Supply numbers through the deliberately slow release of the March 2023 detail, show minimal impact, presently still expanding in the most-liquid, inflation-driving Basic M1 (Currency and Demand Deposits). "John" Williams was born in 1949. Note also that the period of time in which the blue line departs from the CPI transformation is 2007-2009, a time in which inflation mania was at its peak. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress The CPI chart on the home page reflects our estimate of inflation for today as if it were calculated the same way it was in 1990. While shifting focus to the troubled banking system, FOMC hopes and activities still are concentrated on some way of triggering a Recession, again, ostensibly to help contain inflation otherwise being driven by a non-existent overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due otherwise, to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. ET]. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. March 2023 New Home Sales gained by a headline, statistically insignificant 9.6% +/- 15.2% month-to-month, with a statistically insignificant year-to-year decline of 3.4% (-3.4%) +/- 12.7% for this near-term unstable series. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. Money Supply Charts - Shadowstats.com SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - May 1st to May 3rd A major Subscriber-Only e-mail update is pending for later today. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. March 2023 New Residential Construction continued in statistically significant annual year-to-year collapse for both Building Permits and Housing Starts. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak Again, full detail follows in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending No. The 2021 Financial Report is available here: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/current-report.html -- ShadowStats will provide extended analysis in an updated Hyperinflation Commentary, which will post subsequent to the pending Commentary No. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - May 1st to May 3rd A major Subscriber-Only e-mail update is pending for later today. Internationally, these activities are more broadly referred to as the shadow economy. Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders U.S. Government 2021 Financial Statements showed the deepening deficit net worth of the U.S. Governments financial condition hit a record shortfall, or negative net worth, of $123.5 trillion in Fiscal Year 2021 (year-ended September 30), widening from a $113.8 trillion negative net worth in 2020. (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). In the charts to the right we show two SGS-Alternate CPI estimates: One based on the pre-1990 official methodology for computing the CPI-U, and the other based on the methodology which was employed prior to 1980. (I) - BOTTOM LINE COVERAGE: A ninth, consecutive FOMC Meeting Interest Rate hike is expected Wednesday, yet the U.S. Economy already is in intensifying Recession.
Sean Mcdermott High School Wrestling,
Expert Request For Production Florida,
Articles S